Abstract
In Japan, some municipalities introduced a publicly funded pneumococcal vaccination program for the elderly. The expansion of such program has become one of the current topics in the health policy arena. We aim to appraise the value for money of expanding such programs, or starting one in a municipality without a program. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis with Markov modelling and calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio value of starting such a program with 36 different design options, 3 minimum age criteria for the entitlement to the subsidy and 12 levels of co-payment. We found that the introduction of vaccination programs costs more and gains more regardless of targeting ages and co-payment levels. Estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios range from ¥ 8,263,340 per year-of-life-saved (targeting age 65 or over, setting co-payment level at ¥ 0) to ¥ 10,351,324 per year-of-lifesaved (targeting age 75 or over, setting co-payment level at ¥ 5000). According to cost-effectiveness acceptability curves, the probability that a vaccination program is less than ¥ 10,000,000 (US $ 1 = ¥ 100) per life-year gained ranges from 28.5% to 57.5%. By adopting the threshold of the Committee to Study Priority for Vaccine Development in the US, US $ 100,000 per quality adjusted life year gain, all the programs are almost certainly judged cost-effective as vaccination strategies.
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