Cover Image

Testing the forecast of aftershocks: a simple method with an example of application

Changsheng Jiang, Zhongliang Wu
  • Changsheng Jiang
    Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, China
  • Zhongliang Wu
    Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, People’s Republic of China, China | wuzl@cea-igp.ac.cn

Abstract

Tests of aftershock forecast have to consider the temporal distribution of aftershocks, which differ from mainshocks. This paper uses as an example the 2008 Wenchuan aftershock sequence and the load-unload response ratio forecast of aftershocks. We discuss a simplified test scheme using the Ogata-transformed time to make the transformed aftershock sequence homogenously random. While an example was taken using the Molchan error diagram, other testing schemes are also valid for the transformed aftershock sequence.

Keywords

aftershock, forecast, ETAS, LURR, Wenchuan earthquake.

Full Text:

PDF
Submitted: 2011-12-16 12:36:13
Published: 2012-05-10 17:31:52
Search for citations in Google Scholar
Related articles: Google Scholar
Abstract views:
1757

Views:
PDF
212

Article Metrics

Metrics Loading ...

Metrics powered by PLOS ALM


Copyright (c) 2012 Changsheng Jiang, Zhongliang Wu

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
 
© PAGEPress 2008-2016     -     PAGEPress is a registered trademark property of PAGEPress srl, Italy.     -     VAT: IT02125780185